The EU is on track to deliver on its Kyoto Protocol commitments for reducing or limiting emissions of greenhouse gases, the Commission's annual progress report on emissions shows. The latest projections indicate that the EU-15 will meet its 8% reduction target under Kyoto; 10 of the 12 remaining Member States of the EU have also individual commitments under the protocol. It is projected that they will reduce their emissions to 6 or 8% below base year levels.

Under the Kyoto Protocol, the 15 countries which were EU member states when the Protocol was agreed (the EU-15) are committed to reducing their collective greenhouse gas emissions in the period 2008-2012 to 8% below levels in a chosen base year (1990 in most cases). This collective commitment has been translated into differentiated national emission targets for each EU-15 member state which are binding under EU law.

There is no collective target for EU-27 emissions. Ten of the twelve member states which joined the EU in 2004 and 2007 have individual commitments under the Protocol to reduce their emissions to 6% or 8% below base year levels by 2008-2012. Only Cyprus and Malta have no emission target.

Projections for EU-15 and EU-27

EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions in 2007 - the latest year for which full data are available – were 5.0% lower than base year levels. For the EU-27 as a whole, emissions fell by 12.5% between the base year and 2007.

Additionally, theEuropean Environment Agency estimates that in 2008 emissions from the EU-15 member states fell further, to 6.2% below their levels in the base year . EU-27 emissions are now estimated to be 13.6% lower than the base year level.

The Commission's progress report shows that existing policies and measures – those already implemented – are expected to reduce EU-15 emissions to 6.9% below base year levels in the commitment period 2008-2012.

All ten EU-12 member states that have a Kyoto target are projected to meet or over-achieve their Kyoto commitments.

Current uncertainty over the duration and severity of the economic recession, and thus its impact on emissions, could lead to the revision of projections in future once the outlook becomes clearer. Additionally, the projections of some member states may understate future emission reductions as they do not yet take account of the EU climate and energy package adopted earlier this year.

GHG emission projections need to be considered in the perspective of the effective reductions already achieved, which amounted to -9% for the EU-27 and -4% for the EU-15 between 1990 and 2007. Therefore,reduction efforts will need to accelerate substantially across the EU in the future if it is to meet its -20% or -30% target by 2020.