The Business Climate Indicator (BCI) and the Economic sentiment worsened for the euro area

In March 2013, the Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area decreased by 0.14 points to 0.86. The European Commission confirms that the assessment of the adequacy of stocks of finished products also worsened, albeit to a lesser extent. The Commission's figures also show that for March 2013, the Economic Sentiment Indicator in the euro area also declined. The Commission highlighted that the decline was driven by decreases in all business sectors, while consumer confidence remained broadly stable.

The European Commission's figures show that the Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area decreased by 0.14 points to 0.86. With regard to the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI), this one decreased in both the euro area and the EU, putting on hold the recovery that had started in November of last year. Sentiment declined by 1.1 points in the euro area (to 90.0) and by 0.6 points in the EU (to 91.4). In January 2013, the Economic Sentiment Indicator increased in both the EU and the euro area while Business Climate Indicator was broadly unchanged.

On the BCI's decrease, the assessment of current order books (overall and export) and past production declined markedly. Also the assessment of the adequacy of stocks of finished products worsened, albeit to a lesser extent. Production expectations remained virtually unchanged. In the euro area, the ESI's decline was driven by decreases in all business sectors, while consumer confidence remained broadly stable. Economic sentiment worsened in three out of the five largest euro area economies, i.e. France (-1.7), Germany (-1.6) and Spain (-0.9), while it remained broadly stable in the Netherlands (-0.3) and improved in Italy (+1.4).

The Commission stressed that the decrease in industry confidence (-1.2) resulted from a much more negative assessment of the current level of overall order books and a slightly worsened assessment of stocks of finished products, while managers' production expectations remained virtually unchanged. The past production and the current level of export order books, which are not included in the confidence indicator, were also assessed much more unfavourably. Services confidence interrupted the upward trend observed since October 2012, dropping by 1.4 percentage points. Financial services confidence (not included in the ESI) fell by 1.1 points. While demand expectations improved considerably, the past business situation and past demand were assessed clearly more negatively.