Euro area annual inflation is expected to be slightly down in May 2011

According to a flash estimate issued by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, the Euro area inflation is expected to be 2.7% in May 2011. In April, was 2.8%.

The flash estimation procedure for the MUICP combines historical information with partial information on price developments in the most recent months to give a total index for the euro area. Although, the Eurostat has not provide a breakdown in detail, experience has shown the procedure to be reliable (19 times exactly anticipating the inflation rate and 5 times differing by 0.1 over the last two years).

Euro area inflation is measured by the Monetary Union Index of Consumer Prices (MUICP) and annual inflation is the price change between the current month and the same month of the previous year. To compute this flash estimates, Eurostat uses early price information relating to the reference month from Member States for which data are available as well as early information about energy prices. The MUICP flash estimate usually includes early price information representing approximately 95% of the euro area total consumption expenditure weight.