According to the analysis put forward by the Commission's in-house scientific service, the Joint Research Centre (JRC), European total cereal production in 2010 should be close to the average from the last five years, despite extreme weather suffered by most EU countries this year. This forecast, published periodically by the JRC, is based on the analysis made by the Centre using an advanced crop yield forecasting system.

The agricultural forecast put forward by the Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) provides yield estimates for the main crops throughout the European Union and identifies the areas most affected by stress conditions.

The yield forecast for cereals (wheat, barley, maize, other cereals) is 5.1 tonnes per hectare across the EU, the same level as last year (+0.7%) but above the five-year average (+5.0%). The total area used in the European Union for cereals in 2010 is estimated to have decreased by 3 % compared to 2009.

In Spain, durum wheat suffered from excessive rainfall during the winter in Andalucía and yields are forecast to be 16 % below average. Italy, as the main producer of durum wheat, is forecast to have a similar average yield to France.

Soft wheat yield as a total is forecast to be above the five-year average. France and Germany show below average yields that are also clearly below last year's level. In these countries, the extreme conditions experienced lately have prevented a better yield.

Winter barley has been less affected than soft wheat by the dry and hot conditions. Spain, which accounts for one quarter of spring barley production, is forecast to have a yield 15 % above the five-year average. In the two main producing countries France and Germany, yields are forecast to be at average level, but 4 % below last year's level.

While the EU's cereal harvest should reach average levels, the JRC crop monitoring system identifies very critical conditions (hot and dry) that will severely affect winter crop production in Russia, and in particular along the Volga River.

In general, Europe saw a harsh winter with waves of exceptionally low temperatures in December, January, February and also in March leading to a delayed start to the season. Spring and early summer brought a severe shortage of rain in the United Kingdom, western France, Benelux, northern Germany, eastern Poland and Greece. Flooding occurred in Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Romania. On the other hand, Spain and Italy experienced favourable and abundant rain in spring. Northern and central France, Benelux and Germany experienced very high temperatures in June and July coupled with low rainfall.

Joint Research Centre (JRC) and agricultural forecasts

During the agricultural season, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC), who recently published its strategy for the period 2010-2020 in order to reinforce research collaborations, regularly issues forecasts for the main crop yields and produces analyses of the impact of weather conditions on crop production. These are based on methodologies using satellite remote sensing and mathematical models which simulate crop growth.