After a year of work, the European Foresight Expert Group 'The World in 2025' has now presented their findings at conference in Brussels on 24 September. Meeting the challenges of the near future, they write in a new report, may mean moving towards a new production and consumption model, new rural-urban dynamics, and a new gender and intergenerational balance.

'Looking back and looking forward at the same time to try to work out how we get on in the present is a major challenge,' said José Manuel Silva Rodriguez, head of the European Commission's Directorate-General for Research (DG RTD). 'Moving towards a new model of socioeconomic development, we need to meet the needs of 8 billion people in 2025. And I think if we're to do that, we need to make a pretty big effort.'

By the year 2025, the group estimates, centres of gravity, wealth and industrial production may shift towards Asia, and the United States and Europe could likewise lose their scientific and technological edge over Asia. India and China could account for approximately 20% of the world's research and development (R&D), i.e. more than double their current share.

Within 16 years, the world population will reach 8 billion, says the report. Some 97% of world population growth will occur in developing countries, with the European Union accounting for less than 7% of world population. Increased population may lead to greater scarcity of natural resources and impact the environment, according to the expert group. This can lead to tension and change in production and consumption patterns and shifts in production/consumption patterns and natural resources.

From these demographic and resource challenges, the group sees a new 'socio-ecological' production and consumption model arising. New technologies (renewable energy sources, capture and storage of CO2, nuclear power and hydrogen and fuel cells), as well as changes in social behaviour, supported by economic incentives, will contribute to a reduction in energy consumption (better house insulation, replacement of environment-damaging cars with greener options, and increased use of public transport). This is already working in Europe thanks to energy and climate package.

Forward-looking approaches help in building shared visions of the future European challenges and evaluating the impacts of alternative policies. A qualitative and participatory method ('Foresight') combined with quantitative and operational method ('Forecast') allows better long-term policies like the post-2010 European strategy and the European research and innovation policies to develop. Through its Seventh Framework Programme (FP7), 'Socio-economic sciences and humanities' theme, the European Union is funding forward-looking activities with around EUR 30 million.

The expert group was launched in 2008 by DG RTD, in collaboration with the Bureau of European Policy Advisers (BEPA). Group members included representatives from think tanks, universities, industry, the European Commission and governmental bodies. Meeting five times in 2008 and 2009, the group produced two publications: one collecting the expert individual contributions; and another which highlights the conclusions, called 'The World in 2025 - Rising Asia and socio-ecological transition'.