EU agricultural commodity markets are projected to remain balanced until 2022

The Prospects for Agricultural Markets and Income in the EU published by the European Commission shows a relatively positive outlook for arable crops in the EU, as a result of solid world demand and firm prices.

The latest Prospects for Agricultural Markets and Income in the EU, which projects the trends for major EU agricultural commodity markets until 2022, shows that those markets are projected to remain balanced - on average - over the outlook period. Medium term prospects for milk and dairy products appear favourable due to the continuing expansion of world demand. The previous prospects report published in January 2012 projected that agricultural income per working unit in the EU is set to decline by 3.5% by 2020 in comparison to the 2007-11 average level in EU-15 member states.

The report hints an increase in EU cheese exports of more than one third by 2022, based on sustained demand from main destinations of EU cheese (Russia, Middle East countries, the US, etc.). On the contrary, the EU meat market is expected to contract by 2% over the next two years, affected by the on-going economic downturn.

Since 2010, these forecasts have benefited from the Joint Research Centre's modelling capacity, focused on background and baseline projections as well as uncertainty scenarios. Improved features have also been included, like an extended product coverage (including biofuels, detailed oilseed complex, sugar and whole milk powder) as well as an attempt to identify and quantify the main areas of uncertainty.